Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
