A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
